Link to another blog post

I needed to respond to a post for another class and it ended up being posted on this blogs main site. It's about Obama and his chances for President.

http://politicalgrind.com/2007/02/26/the-obama-equivalent/

I have to respectfully disagree.

Obama’s campaign looks exactly like a fad.
The age of electability based on charismatic leadership is over. The extensive vetting process that candidates now have to endure exposes every aspect of a candidate’s life, but more importantly the 24 hour news cycle makes mountains over what a casual observer might call a mole-hill. This causes a phenomena where even when the public might not mind a certain weakness (namely a lack of experience) that weakness is talked about over and over and over changing the publics mindset over time. So while they may be moved be a speech, they are changed by those facts that are repeated, and the soundtrack of Obama will sound increasingly like a broken record of “inexperience.”

While some like to try to compare him to Lincoln, who was inexperienced when he became President the comparison is an ill-fit. It’s not that both were not underdogs, nor is it that both were not charismatic and visionary- but the comparison lacks any historical perspective in terms of the development of the media. Lincoln didn’t carry on his campaign with 24 hour satellite coverage and a media entourage. Becoming President these days is no quiet matter; it is an extravaganza of people and events, interviews and photo-ops, and each time Obama slips, the American people will be there to watch the newbie fall. But where the Lincoln-Obama connection doesn’t quite take, there are other public figures against whom Obama can easily be measured.

In some respects Obama is reminiscent of Senator John Edwards in 2002/2003. He is attractive, well educated, and seems to appeal to a broad base. However, in the end most Democrats didn’t feel like Edwards could seriously contest President Bush because he didn’t have enough experience.

Obama is also similar to Governor Howard Dean in the past election. Dean was the big story for many new cycles because he was revolutionizing the internet campaign and using youth voters to an extent never seen before. But Dean peaked too soon. His campaign began as a visionary one and fell apart when the crushing weight of having to propose policy as a front runner was brought to bear. Once the weakness of his charming rhetoric was stripped away the democratic voters were left with a bold relief of a man who simply didn’t seem electable.

Obama may invigorate some part of the youth vote as Dean did in ‘04, but that certainly does not ensure him the primary much less the election. Even if the youth vote brings him within sight of winning a few primaries national statistics suggest that youth voters across the nation are as split down the middle as all other voting groups- forcing Obama to focus on issues and not demographics.

But back to a poor comparison: Obama and Bill Clinton. Obama is no Bill Clinton. Clinton was and still is a charismatic, political force. Clinton ran at a time when all other serious Democratic challengers couldn’t get their names out of the race fast enough because then President H. W. Bush had one of the highest approval ratings in history. Obama has serious challengers that have far more resources and experience than he. But most importantly his biggest challenger, Hillary Clinton, has already been vetted in the campaign process and will likely not have anything new come to light in this presidential campaign.

And if Obama does make it through the primary it appears he would likely be running against Senator John McCain, an older, more experienced, more respected war hero. While McCain would look incredibly old next to a young and vigorous Obama, McCain is extremely popular with moderates and is seen as a man who would unite a divided country. Imagine the evening news after a debate where John McCain simply turned to Obama on an issue and said “You’ve still got a lot to learn.” And ultimately that may become the epitaph of the Obama campaign, “You’ve still got a lot to learn.”

This race will ultimately come down to the administration’s record and that may help Obama if he does win the Democratic nomination. However, he has a long road ahead of him and while people feel he is the newest and greatest thing now they may feel very differently in a year and a half. Think of how long other candidates like Ralph Nader, Allan Keyes, or Geraldine Ferraro looked promising? America’s attention span is just far too short for a candidate whose greatest asset is a knock-out smile and an inspiring voice.

--Kristine